AI video tools market forecast, November 2026
Miles FosterOwner and tester, RankDude
The forecast▼ Fallingthrough May 2027
- November vs October
- -3.3%
- May 2027, six months out
- -10%
- Past forecasts in range
- 3 of 6
Each month I forecast Google visits to the AI video tools sites I track, then score myself when the real number lands. For November 2026 I expect about 559 million visits, 3% fewer than in October 2026.
Below: how my last forecast did, the next six months and site by site.
Made 2 November 2026 from the October 2026 data. Data from DataForSEO, Google Trends via DataForSEO, Tranco and Ahrefs · not a ranking
AI video tools forecast: the key numbers for November 2026
- Expected in November559Mvisits-3% vs October
- Likely range477M–641Mvisits in November
- Expected in May 2027520Mvisits-10% six months out
- Forecasts in range3 of 6monthswhen the method was tested
Visits from Google search to the tracked sites, a month. Hover or tap the chart for each month.
- The AI video tools sites RankDude tracks got 577,693,422 visits from Google search in October 2026.
- The forecast for November 2026 is 558,752,251 visits, down by about 3% on October 2026, likely between 477M and 641M.
- That is down on November 2025, when the same sites had 809,410,717 visits.
1How accurate is this forecast?
In plain words: Tested on the last 6 months, it missed by 9% on average.
- Tested on
- the last 6 months, as if their numbers were unknown
- Average miss
- 9%
- Inside the range
- 3 of 6 months
- Direction called right
- 1 of 6 months
- Next month
- this section scores the real forecast
The backtest, month by month
| Month | Would have forecast | Range | Actual | Miss | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 961,016,984 | 884M to 1038M | 938,654,742 | -2.3% | in range |
| June 2026 | 948,403,341 | 873M to 1024M | 838,440,114 | -11.6% | missed |
| July 2026 | 860,115,615 | 786M to 934M | 728,899,118 | -15.3% | missed |
| August 2026 | 747,635,000 | 661M to 834M | 637,900,569 | -14.7% | missed |
| September 2026 | 654,360,734 | 558M to 751M | 601,625,536 | -8.1% | in range |
| October 2026 | 591,448,105 | 505M to 678M | 577,693,422 | -2.3% | in range |
Month
- May 2026
- Would have forecast
- 961,016,984
- Range
- 884M to 1038M
- Actual
- 938,654,742
- Miss
- -2.3%
- Result
- in range
- June 2026
- Would have forecast
- 948,403,341
- Range
- 873M to 1024M
- Actual
- 838,440,114
- Miss
- -11.6%
- Result
- missed
- July 2026
- Would have forecast
- 860,115,615
- Range
- 786M to 934M
- Actual
- 728,899,118
- Miss
- -15.3%
- Result
- missed
- August 2026
- Would have forecast
- 747,635,000
- Range
- 661M to 834M
- Actual
- 637,900,569
- Miss
- -14.7%
- Result
- missed
- September 2026
- Would have forecast
- 654,360,734
- Range
- 558M to 751M
- Actual
- 601,625,536
- Miss
- -8.1%
- Result
- in range
- October 2026
- Would have forecast
- 591,448,105
- Range
- 505M to 678M
- Actual
- 577,693,422
- Miss
- -2.3%
- Result
- in range
Each row uses only data from before that month.
Miles explains
3 of 6 in range is honest, not perfect. The biggest miss was July 2026 (-15%), the kind of month when one big site jumps. That’s why the range is wide.
2What is the market doing now?
Visits are down on a year ago (-26%), and the last three months were lower than the three before. Name searches are about level (-1% since October 2025). Recent months are getting weaker, and the forecast follows them.
- Visits, October 2026
- 577,693,422 (-4.0% on the month before, -26.1% on a year ago)
- Last 3 months vs the 3 before
- -27.5%
- 24-month peak
- 956,270,754 in April 2026
- Name searches, US
- -0.7% since October 2025
- Google Trends, "ai video tools"
- 14/100 (-68.2% on a year ago)
- 12-month trend
- -3.6% a month; the forecast carries part of the slope, fading
WorldChange in visits, month on month, worldwide
Green grew, red shrank. Source: DataForSEO.
Miles explains
Big green or red bars are usually one site winning or losing a Google ranking, not the whole market moving. What I watch is the last three months against the three before: -28%.
3Is November usually a big month or a quiet one?
November is usually a quieter month than average (14% below) for searches for “ai video tools”. But the sites’ visits follow rankings more than the calendar, so the pattern is shown and not allowed to move the numbers.
- November index
- 86 (100 = an average month)
- On the calendar
- Black Friday and Cyber Monday and Thanksgiving (US)
- Biggest months
- September
- Quietest months
- November
- Used in this forecast?
- No: average miss 9% as chosen, 8.9% without the pattern, 12.2% always with it
WorldHow busy each month usually is, worldwide (100 = average)
Source: Google Trends, five years.
Miles explains
I tested the calendar against the last months and it made the forecast worse (12.2% average miss with it, 8.9% without), so I show it but leave it out.
4What to expect in November 2026
About 559M visits in November 2026, down 3% on October 2026. The likely range is 477M to 641M.
| Measure | Last known | Forecast | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Search visits, worldwide | 577,693,422 | 558,752,251 | 477M to 641M |
| Search visits, US | 65,015,094 | 62,992,393 | 52M to 74M |
| Brand-name searches a month, US (last known: September 2026) | 37,402,940 | 31,252,632 | 16M to 47M |
| Searches for “ai video tools”, US (last known: September 2026) | 1,300 | 1,382 | 931 to 1.8K |
Measure
- Search visits, worldwide
- Last known
- 577,693,422
- Forecast
- 558,752,251
- Range
- 477M to 641M
- Search visits, US
- Last known
- 65,015,094
- Forecast
- 62,992,393
- Range
- 52M to 74M
- Brand-name searches a month, US (last known: September 2026)
- Last known
- 37,402,940
- Forecast
- 31,252,632
- Range
- 16M to 47M
- Searches for “ai video tools”, US (last known: September 2026)
- Last known
- 1,300
- Forecast
- 1,382
- Range
- 931 to 1.8K
Source: DataForSEO and Google Ads.
5What to expect over the next six months
By May 2027 the forecast expects about 520,191,087 visits a month, -10% on the 577,693,422 of October 2026, so the next six months look like a slide.
| Month | Worldwide visits | Range | US visits | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2026 | 545,641,427 | 457M to 634M | 61,884,217 | 50M to 73M |
| January 2027 | 536,463,850 | 442M to 631M | 61,108,493 | 49M to 73M |
| February 2027 | 530,039,545 | 429M to 631M | 60,565,487 | 47M to 74M |
| March 2027 | 525,542,533 | 417M to 634M | 60,185,382 | 46M to 74M |
| April 2027 | 522,394,624 | 407M to 638M | 59,919,309 | 45M to 75M |
| May 2027 | 520,191,087 | 398M to 643M | 59,733,058 | 44M to 76M |
Month
- December 2026
- Worldwide visits
- 545,641,427
- Range
- 457M to 634M
- US visits
- 61,884,217
- Range
- 50M to 73M
- January 2027
- Worldwide visits
- 536,463,850
- Range
- 442M to 631M
- US visits
- 61,108,493
- Range
- 49M to 73M
- February 2027
- Worldwide visits
- 530,039,545
- Range
- 429M to 631M
- US visits
- 60,565,487
- Range
- 47M to 74M
- March 2027
- Worldwide visits
- 525,542,533
- Range
- 417M to 634M
- US visits
- 60,185,382
- Range
- 46M to 74M
- April 2027
- Worldwide visits
- 522,394,624
- Range
- 407M to 638M
- US visits
- 59,919,309
- Range
- 45M to 75M
- May 2027
- Worldwide visits
- 520,191,087
- Range
- 398M to 643M
- US visits
- 59,733,058
- Range
- 44M to 76M
6What the forecast expects for the ten most-visited sites
The forecast expects none of the ten to rise by more than 3%, and Grok (-11%), Camb.ai (-4%), Fotor (-5%), VEED (-3%) and Kapwing (-4%) to fall; the rest are within 3% of October 2026. Single sites are harder to forecast than the whole market, so their ranges are wider.
| Site | October 2026 | November 2026 forecast | Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adobe | 250,960,787 | 252,711,700 | 229M to 277M | +0.7% |
 Canva | 221,411,904 | 219,636,353 | 202M to 237M | -0.8% |
 Dreamina | 23,747,157 | 23,767,510 | 22M to 26M | +0.1% |
 Grok | 14,044,804 | 12,513,920 | 11M to 14M | -10.9% |
 Camb.ai | 5,541,056 | 5,303,538 | 3.7M to 6.9M | -4.3% |
 Filmora | 4,519,345 | 4,512,143 | 3.9M to 5.1M | -0.2% |
 Fotor | 3,228,635 | 3,076,783 | 2.6M to 3.6M | -4.7% |
 VEED | 3,090,874 | 2,985,862 | 2.3M to 3.7M | -3.4% |
 Kapwing | 2,774,246 | 2,658,072 | 2.3M to 3.1M | -4.2% |
 invideo | 2,707,399 | 2,743,644 | 2.4M to 3.1M | +1.3% |
Site
- October 2026
- 250,960,787
- November 2026 forecast
- 252,711,700
- Range
- 229M to 277M
- Change
- +0.7%
- October 2026
- 221,411,904
- November 2026 forecast
- 219,636,353
- Range
- 202M to 237M
- Change
- -0.8%
- October 2026
- 23,747,157
- November 2026 forecast
- 23,767,510
- Range
- 22M to 26M
- Change
- +0.1%
- October 2026
- 14,044,804
- November 2026 forecast
- 12,513,920
- Range
- 11M to 14M
- Change
- -10.9%
- October 2026
- 5,541,056
- November 2026 forecast
- 5,303,538
- Range
- 3.7M to 6.9M
- Change
- -4.3%
- October 2026
- 4,519,345
- November 2026 forecast
- 4,512,143
- Range
- 3.9M to 5.1M
- Change
- -0.2%
- October 2026
- 3,228,635
- November 2026 forecast
- 3,076,783
- Range
- 2.6M to 3.6M
- Change
- -4.7%
- October 2026
- 3,090,874
- November 2026 forecast
- 2,985,862
- Range
- 2.3M to 3.7M
- Change
- -3.4%
- October 2026
- 2,774,246
- November 2026 forecast
- 2,658,072
- Range
- 2.3M to 3.1M
- Change
- -4.2%
- October 2026
- 2,707,399
- November 2026 forecast
- 2,743,644
- Range
- 2.4M to 3.1M
- Change
- +1.3%
Source: DataForSEO.
Grok is held to its own range from October 2026. Together the ten come to 529,909,525, inside the market forecast of 558,752,251 for every tracked site.
7What could change the forecast
What could knock November 2026 off course:
- A big site winning or losing a page-one position for “ai video tools”.
- A Google update.
- A site going offline.
- A news story that spikes interest for a week and then fades.
None of these are in the numbers until they happen, which is why the range exists.